Economy finds reverse gear in January with surprise contraction
The UK economy shrank at the start of 2025, according to official figures which had been expected to show further meagre growth.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that output declined by 0.1% during the month following the 0.4% growth seen in December.
A growth figure of 0.1% had been tipped by a majority of economists but the ONS noted a slump in manufacturing output.
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Its director of economic statistics, Liz McKeown, said: “The economy shrank a little in January but grew in the latest three months as a whole, with the overall picture continuing to be of weak growth.
“The fall in January was driven by a notable slowdown in manufacturing, with oil and gas extraction and construction also having weak months.
“However, services continued to grow in January led by a strong month for retail, especially food stores, as people ate and drank at home more.”
January’s data marks a fresh blow for the chancellor as the economy faces headwinds on many fronts at a time when her stated priority is securing economic growth.
Looming large for Rachel Reeves is the threat of an adverse business reaction to budget tax hikes she is due to impose from April.
Firms are facing the bulk of the £40bn bill through employer national insurance contributions and are warning of job losses, weaker pay rises and investment, along with possible price hikes, to account for the surge in costs.
Consumer spending power is also set to be tested at the same time as essential bills including those for council tax, water and household energy are due to rise sharply.
Other challenges include the escalating trade war initiated by Donald Trump, which is tipped by economists to dent growth prospects globally.
Ms Reeves is low on ammunition as she prepares a spring statement for MPs later this month, with the welfare bill set to be slashed to avoid breaking her own spending rules.
At the same time, the independent Office for Budget Responsibility is widely expected to downgrade its forecasts for UK growth ahead.
The chancellor said of the ONS data: “The world has changed and across the globe we are feeling the consequences.
“That’s why we are going further and faster to protect our country, reform our public services and kickstart economic growth to deliver on our Plan for Change.
“And why we are launching the biggest sustained increase in defence spending since the Cold War, fundamentally reshaping the British state to deliver for working people and their families; and taking on the blockers to get Britain building again.”
Her Conservative counterpart, Mel Stride, urged her to use the spring statement to change course.
“It is no surprise that growth is down again, following near no growth in the last three months of 2024”, he said.
“After consistently talking Britain down, raising taxes to record highs and crushing business with their extreme employment legislation this government is a growth killer.
“Labour inherited the fastest growing economy in the G7 but since they arrived business confidence has collapsed and jobs are being lost.”